Despite weak poll showings, Raj Thackeray’s MNS continues to hover as a possible game-changer, with both Mahayuti and the Sena (UBT) eager to get him on their side ahead of the BMC polls
MNS chief Raj Thackeray addresses party workers at a rally. File Pic/Ashish Raje
As the BMC election inches closer, ruling and Opposition parties are eyeing the support of Raj Thackeray and his party, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), to exert pressure on both alliance partners and rivals.
The BJP sees an alliance with Raj as a strategic move to get its alliance partner, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and friend-turned-foe, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), worried.
Similarly, Uddhav, too, has hinted at burying the hatchet with Raj, preventing a split in the Marathi vote with an alliance. With this, UBT will not only fortify its position in the BMC but will also weaken the BJP’s chances of winning the civic body single-handedly, a long-cherished wish.
The current situation brings multiple options for Raj — aligning with the Mahayuti (BJP or Shinde), reconciling with Uddhav or contesting independently. But all three possible routes have one thing in common — a risk that might ultimately cost Raj the very party he built.
Last year, in the Assembly polls, MNS bagged less than two per cent of the vote share and could not even win a single seat, including the Mahim segment, which was contested by his son, Amit.
In 2009, Raj, who had emerged as a disruptive force, won 13 Assembly seats, making a dent in the undivided Shiv Sena’s core Marathi votes in urban areas such as Mumbai, Nashik and Thane. But, thereafter, the MNS has witnessed a constant decline. The downslide is such that the vote share dipped to 2.3 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections. Also, in the last BMC polls (in 2017), the MNS won only seven seats, 21 fewer than the number it had won in 2012.
Despite the poll debacle underscoring the existential challenge for the MNS, especially ahead of the upcoming civic polls, Raj has a breather for himself and a lifeline for the party as everyone, including the ruling BJP, Shinde Sena and the UBT camp, wants him on their side.
An alliance between the estranged Thackeray cousins — Raj and Uddhav — could offer benefits like consolidation of the Marathi vote, prevention of vote splits — particularly in urban strongholds like Mumbai and Thane — strengthening the narrative of protecting regional identity and pride, creating a stronger Opposition bloc and preserving the Thackeray legacy.
But, the flip side is, in case Raj decides to join hands with his cousin, he could face resistance from within his party. Many within the MNS may oppose or not want the reunion as they believe, merely based on numbers, ‘Matoshree’ might try to dominate the partnership. One cannot rule out the chances of an exodus from both the MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT), as those with political ambition who have been denied tickets might defect to the BJP or the Shinde camp.
The other major concern for Raj allying with UBT is that the former will have to campaign against the BJP and its allies. This means Raj will have to burn bridges with the BJP.
Taking ‘panga’ with the ruling regime could turn into a political and administrative pushback for the MNS, as BJP leaders are not known to easily forgive political turncoats. It may be recalled that the Enforcement Directorate (ED) had once summoned Raj and his party leader Nitin Sardesai in connection with a case related to an IL&FS loan to a realty firm.
Whether MNS can survive those headwinds and the full wrath of a powerful ruling regime is a question that Raj would need to ask himself before making any move.
On the other hand, if Raj explores the option of joining (whether openly or in a discreet understanding) with the Mahayuti, this could be seen as an ideological compromise, especially in the wake of the recent Marathi-Gujarati tensions in Mumbai.
This will also mean that, to a certain extent, the MNS’s popularity among the Marathi-speaking community might decline.
After Thursday’s meeting between CM Devendra Fadnavis and Raj, there is speculation that the BJP wants the latter to ally himself with the Shinde Sena. The BJP cannot directly ally itself with Raj, who is known for his aggressive stand against migrants in Mumbai, especially North Indians and, recently, Gujaratis, as this might have an impact on the Bihar polls, which are scheduled for later this year, and even on national politics.
Hence, as a solution to having Raj in the Mahayuti, a section of BJP leaders are pitching the idea of a Raj-Shinde alliance to prevent the Opposition from benefiting from the division of Hindutva votes.
But, even if Raj goes with Shinde, the former will be questioned from within an Opposition party. Last year, Raj had blamed Shinde for putting up hurdles in MNS being a part of the Mahayuti alliance in the Assembly elections.
Hence, considering the current political scenarios, one may feel like Raj’s position is strengthening, with both the ruling and Opposition parties interested in inking a seat-sharing deal with the MNS. One should not forget that Raj also has the option of contesting solo.
However, these options reveal a much tougher reality, that not a single one offers a clear or risk-free path for Raj.
In this political crossfire, on his birthday (today, June 14), it is time for Raj to heed the famous line from the Bollywood film ‘Sarkar’, loosely based on his late uncle Balasaheb Thackeray: Nazdiki faayde ke baare mein sochne se pehle, door ke nuksaan ke baare mein sochna chahiye (Before thinking about short-term gain, one must consider the long-term losses). Raj’s next move will not just determine the fate of the MNS, but will also decide whether the charismatic nephew of the late Balasaheb Thackeray will be able to reclaim the lost legacy and relevance that once made him a force to be reckoned with in Maharashtra’s politics.
Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe
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The views expressed in this column are the individual’s and don’t represent those of the paper.
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