Does Eknath Shinde need to start worrying?

If the Thackeray cousins come together, even in a ‘show’ of unity over the state’s linguistic identity, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena stands to lose its hard-core Marathi voter base, which won’t hesitate to switch

The reunion of the estranged Thackeray cousins, even for a day — if not for the civic polls or a long-term alliance — is certainly a threat to the ruling regime. But, it is not the BJP that needs to be worried about the symbolic reunion. The real political threat looms over its alliance partner, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which on several occasions in public meetings has claimed to be the true inheritor of the late Bal Thackeray’s legacy of both Hindutva and Marathi.

Raj Thackeray, head of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray have decided to share a platform over the state’s linguistic identity. In fact, the cousins have decided to match footsteps in the unity march scheduled for July 5, from Girgaon sea face to Azad Maidan to protest against the state government’s imposition of Hindi in schools across the state. 

Both Raj and Uddhav have projected themselves as the champions of Marathi. Since 2022 (when the Shiv Sena witnessed the split in the party engineered by Shinde), ‘Bhai’, as Shinde is fondly referred to by his followers, portrayed himself as the custodian of the late Sena chief’s Hindutva and Marathi legacy.

For the UBT camp, Shinde is already seen as a rival as he engineered the split in the party. For many in MNS, Shinde isn’t appealing as he and his party refused to tacitly support Raj’s son Amit during the 2024 Assembly poll. BJP had openly offered its support to Amit, who was contesting the Mahim seat, after Raj unconditionally backed Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Lok Sabha polls. But Shinde refused to blink. Amit and Shinde’s candidate both lost to the UBT candidate. In fact, Raj has openly stated that MNS was on the brink of being onboard with the Mahayuti for the Assembly polls, but the plan was stalled due to the Shinde Sena’s reservation.

Raj, Uddhav, and Shinde all trace their roots to the Shiv Sena that was founded in 1966. The trio claims to be working for the welfare of Marathi and Maharashtra and has been amplifying its individual vote bank on the same grounds.

Though the reunion between the cousins could be only for a day and not shape into a proper alliance for electoral gain, the shared platform could have a deeper impact in Maharashtra’s politics.  In simple words, Shinde faces the risk of an eroding votebank (to a certain extent), especially ahead of the crucial civic polls scheduled later this year.

Like Shinde, the BJP too might face some tremors. But, for the BJP, it is relatively insulated from the development as it too enjoys support from a large chunk of Marathi speakers. The BJP also has the  advantage of a broad national narrative–patriotism, Hindutva and more importantly, a strong cadre.

However, for Shinde, the threat is more direct as he is trying to flex his muscle and expand the party base at a rapid speed, especially in areas dominated by Marathi voters.  

In 2017, of the total 227 BMC seats, Shiv Sena (undivided) won 84. Of this, 50 corporators have quit the UBT camp and joined the Shinde Sena. But, the newest political development could slowly start applying the brakes on Shinde’s programme, which relies on the borrowed BJP mandate and the Sena’s Marathi legacy. If the cousins decide to opt for reconciliation, Shinde stares at a bigger risk — traditional Sena voters swinging back to Uddhav or Raj, especially in Mumbai, Thane, and Nashik.

In the past, one would have noticed that during corporation elections, several corporators win or lose with a margin of less than 1000 votes, in some cases, the margin is also below 500. In such cases, Marathi voters shifting back to the Thackerays, even though in smaller numbers, might lead to a big setback for Shinde, not necessarily immediate electoral defeat, but gradual erosion of legacy and voter base. 

In April, the Fadnavis-led BJP government had issued a Government Resolution (GR) stating that, under the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, Maharashtra would adopt a three-language format, with Hindi as the third language.

However, following backlash, the government revised its order clarifying that Hindi would not be mandatory, but optional, though critics saw this as a backdoor push to promote Hindi. As per the NEP, two of the three languages should be native to India, and the regional language is mandatory.

Except for Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, all other political leaders — Raj, Uddhav, both Ajit and Sharad Pawar and those in the Congress — have opposed the three-language format and backdoor push for Hindi. 

After weeks of silence on the issue, Shinde on Friday said no decision would be forced on anyone and that further action on the issue would be decided only after consulting all stakeholders.

Many in the MNS and UBT camps are drawing parallels between the Samyukta Maharashtra Movement (1956–1960) that had demanded a separate Marathi-speaking state with Mumbai as its capital and their July 5 protest rally. Whether the rally evolves into Samyukta Maharashtra 2.0 in structure and reunites the Marathi-speaking people, especially the cousins and their parties, or merely remains a one-day show of strength and unity, needs to be watched closely by the community and the ruling regime, especially the Shinde camp. That’s because this could have lasting implications, as a Thackeray reunion has the potential to either stall or even reverse the ongoing political momentum.

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe
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The views expressed in this column are the individual’s and don’t represent those of the paper.

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